By 2032, more governments will have run formal four-day-week trials in the public sector than today

Prediction: by 2032, more national or regional governments than today will have run a formal, evaluated trial of a four-day working week in part of the public sector.

Reasoning: trials in private firms and a few public bodies have drawn considerable attention, and they offer a politically cautious route: a time-limited pilot with published measures can be defended to voters on both sides. Public employers also face recruitment and retention pressures, which make non-pay benefits attractive.

Confidence: moderate, about 60 percent. Public budgets are tight, and the results of early trials will shape whether others follow.

What would prove us wrong: if the number of governments that have run such trials does not increase, or if early trials are widely reported as failures and not repeated.

How to check: count the governments with a published trial design and results in 2026 and again in 2032, and compare the lists.