By 2035, the global internet-use gap will narrow but will not close

Prediction: by 2035, the share of the world's population that uses the internet will be higher than today, but a meaningful gap will remain between richer and poorer countries, and between urban and rural areas, especially for affordable and reliable use.

Reasoning: networks and devices keep getting cheaper, which draws more people online. But use depends on more than coverage: affordability, electricity, skills, language, and whether services are relevant to people's lives. These change more slowly than technology.

Confidence: fairly high, about 75 percent, that the gap narrows without closing. Our less certain judgement is about how quickly.

What would prove us wrong: if the gap widens, or if usage becomes close to universal in the poorest countries and rural areas.

How to check: compare internet-use statistics from international bodies for high-income and low-income countries in 2035, and look at both access and meaningful use, such as regular use at an affordable price.