By 2035, social prescribing will be a routine option in primary care in more countries than today

Prediction: by 2035, more countries than today will offer social prescribing, in which a health professional refers a patient to non-medical community activities such as walking groups, gardening, arts or advice services, as a routine part of primary care.

Reasoning: primary care is under pressure in many countries, and many visits involve problems with social roots, such as loneliness, housing and money worries. Referral schemes are relatively cheap and can be run through existing community groups. The World Health Organization encourages stronger primary health care as a foundation of health systems.

Confidence: moderate, about 60 percent. Evidence on effectiveness is still developing, and funding for the community side is often fragile.

What would prove us wrong: if the number of countries with routine schemes does not rise, or if rigorous evaluations show little benefit and programmes are wound down.

How to check: compare national health-system descriptions in 2026 and 2035 for the presence of a funded, national or regional social-prescribing programme.