By 2032, community health workers will be central to primary care in more countries

Prediction: by 2032, more countries than today will treat community health workers, trained local people who provide basic care, health education and referrals, as a formal, paid and supported part of primary care.

Reasoning: many countries face shortages of doctors and nurses, especially in rural and low-income areas. Community health workers can extend care into homes and neighbourhoods, and programmes that train and support them have been used in many places. The World Health Organization's emphasis on primary health care and universal health coverage points in the same direction.

Confidence: moderate, about 60 percent. The main risk is that programmes rely on unpaid or poorly supported workers, which limits quality and keeps turnover high.

What would prove us wrong: if the number of countries with formal, paid, nationally supported programmes does not rise, or if programmes shrink.

How to check: compare national health workforce policies in 2026 and 2032 for formal employment status, pay and supervision of community health workers.