By 2032, at least one major news organisation will publish a running scorecard of its own forecasts

Prediction: by 2032, at least one major newspaper or broadcaster will keep and publish a running scorecard of its own predictions and expert forecasts, showing which came true.

Reasoning: media outlets publish forecasts constantly, about elections, economies, markets and technology, but rarely return to check them. Audiences are increasingly sceptical, and publishing a track record is a visible way to earn trust. Forecasting tournaments and prediction markets have shown how scoring can work in practice.

Confidence: low to moderate, about 40 percent. It requires editorial discipline and a willingness to publish embarrassing results.

What would prove us wrong: if no major outlet maintains such a scorecard by 2032, or if any that does so abandons it within a year.

How to check: look for a public, regularly updated page of the organisation's past predictions with outcomes recorded.