By 2030, world population will still be growing, but more slowly than today

Prediction: by 2030, the world's population will still be larger than in 2025, but the annual growth rate will be lower than it is today.

Reasoning: mainstream projections, such as the United Nations' World Population Prospects, show growth slowing as fertility falls in many regions. Because of the age structure of the population, many more people are reaching adulthood than are dying, so total numbers keep rising for a while even when families get smaller, a pattern known as demographic momentum.

Confidence: high, about 90 percent. This is among the more predictable kinds of forecast.

What would prove us wrong: if the growth rate in 2030 is higher than the current rate, which would require an unexpected rise in fertility or a large fall in mortality, or if the population falls in absolute terms because of a catastrophe.

How to check: compare official estimates of annual growth for 2025 and 2030 from the United Nations or national statistical offices.